Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) provides moderate outlook for oil prices in next half year. OPEC representatives are quite uncertain about oil market in the nearest future despite decreasing of global glut. OPEC efforts in cutting output have lead to price increase; however, this gain was limited because United States and Russia intend to increase production.
Oil prices have been rising last couple months and got over $70 per barrel. Forecasts for future oil dynamic are uncertain because oil market shows us unstable direction. OPEC agreement regarding output cut has supported the prices but increasing production in US shrug off these improvements. In attempt to boost the oil market OPEC and Russia has cut oil supply by 1.9 million barrels per day (bpd) since January 2017. Different geopolitical risks around the world also contributed to the increasing of oil prices which were on the downtrend since 2014.
Commodities analyst of HQ Broker stated, that in the following few months dynamic of oil prices will be mixed. Main driver of oil growth will remain production in OPEC and non-OPEC countries.
Monthly OPEC report stated that oil production in OPEC increased by 35 000 bpd in last month reaching 31.9 million bpd. Production in Saudi Arabia increased by 85 500 bpd but this growth was offset by decreasing production in Nigeria, Libya and Venezuela.
Oil production in USA was the main restraining factor in oil prices gain. For the last two years output in US has increased by almost thirty percent, reaching record 10.8 million barrels per day.
According to the officials of Saudi Arabia and Russia, they intend to boost output in order to avoid oil supply shortfall. In June oil production in Russia have reached 11.1 million barrels per day.
Iraq, OPEC’s second largest oil producer, insists on further production cut. Iraq stated that oil market hasn’t reached optimal levels and if OPEC decides to raise production rates producers shouldn’t feel the pressure to do the same.
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