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Table 1: Peak Power Demand Winter compared to Summer
Florida Power and Light, the major energy provider for Florida’s East and Southwest coasts, generates 28 percent more electricity in the hot than the cold season, for the Tampa Bay area it is 25 percent, and for the western Panhandle (Gulf Power) 21 percent. Categorized by user, in 2006 Florida Power and Light’s residential customers used 41 percent more electricity in summer than winter, while for commercial establishments it was 17 percent more, but for industry it was seven percent less. For a number of reasons the differences between winter and summer in energy production of the state’s suppliers varies throughout the state (Table 2).
Table 2: Percentage Difference in Summer Energy Use With that of Winter
Winter: Dec, Jan, Feb. Summer, June, July, August
Degree-Days
The focus of this study is changes in the length and intensity of Florida’s hot season over time. This is an issue that many Floridians who suffer through this hot and humid period give much thought to. Without air conditioning it is a very enervating period, but with air conditioning, especially with the recent huge increase in the price of energy, it has become very expensive. The study also addresses another issue increasingly important to a growing number of Floridians, global warming. Is the hots season becoming longer and hotter? The study relies heavily on the use of degree-days for its measurement.
The degree-day is an index developed by heating engineers to measure the effect of outside air temperature on building energy consumption. To calculate the daily degree-day for a weather station, it’s high and low temperatures for a given day are averaged and then subtracted from a base temperature. The most widely used base temperature, which is used here, is 65° Fahrenheit (F). That temperature has become standard because it is assumed that when the outside temperature is 65° F a building needs to be neither heated nor cooled. Thus, if the high temperature for the day of the station were 85° F and the low temperature were 55° F, the average would be (70° F). By subtracting the base temperature 65° F from the station’s average that day the number of degree-days is obtained (5 degrees). Since the average is above the base temperature, and cooling is deemed necessary to maintain a comfortable temperature in the building, the day is designated as a 5 cooling degree-day. If the station’s average temperature for that day was 55° F, and the base temperature was 65° F, the base temperature would be 10 degrees higher than the actual temperature. Since heating is needed it is called a 10 heating degree-day. On first use many people confuse the index number as the number of days of either cooling or heating, when in fact it is the difference in the temperature average that day from the base temperature.
Controls of Florida Climate
Before interpreting the distribution of degree-days throughout the state, and the share of those degree-days that were for cooling, it is appropriate here to identify the important variables that effect heating and cooling throughout the state (Winsberg, 2003). The most important is latitude. Florida is, with the exception of Hawaii, the southernmost state in the nation. As a consequence, during both summer and winter, at noon, the sun is higher on the horizon than in states farther north. This means its rays are striking the state at a higher angle. The higher the sun is on the horizon the more it is able to heat. For example, at the time of the summer solstice (June 22), the longest period the sun is above the horizon in the northern hemisphere, the angle of the sun at noon in Orlando is 85 degrees. In New York City it is 73 degrees. On December 22nd, the date of the winter solstice, when in the northern hemisphere the daylight period is the shortest, the noon sun’s rays reach Orlando at a 38 degree angle, and at New York the angle is 28. Florida stretches almost six degrees of latitude, so between north and south Florida, at any given day of the year, there is about a six degree difference at noon in the angle of the sun that reaches the earth, for example between Key West and Jacksonville.
A second factor in explaining the distribution of temperature throughout the state is that, as a peninsula, no part of Florida is very far from a large body of water, either the Atlantic Ocean or the Gulf of Mexico. Land near large water bodies reflect the temperature of the water bodies they are near, especially if there are wind systems that move air from above the water onto the land. Water loses and gains heat more slowly than land, because the rays of the sun can penetrate deeper into water than land. Conversely, water releases its heat more slowly than land. Consequently, if air modified by the Gulf or Atlantic reaches into Florida’s interior in the summer it is generally cooler than the air it displaces. The reverse is true in the winter, when breezes that enter the state from the Gulf and from the Atlantic tend to be warmer than those in its interior.
This difference in temperature between a maritime and a more continental location can be illustrated by comparing the maximum temperatures of Miami Beach, whose station is directly on its shore, with that of Miami International Airport, located approximately eight miles west of it. The July average maximum temperature at the station in Miami Beach is 87.4° F while at the airport it is 89.5° F. Forty miles west of Miami Beach, in the middle of the Everglades, the 40-Mile Bend-Tamiami Trail station records a 92.0° F July average. Because land at night loses its heat more rapidly than water, temperature of the air above it falls more rapidly. Since night is usually when a station’s temperature reaches its daily minimum, and the nearer the water the more water temperature controls air temperature, the reverse occurs. Looking at the same three South Florida stations, average July minimum temperature at Miami Beach is 78.4° F, for Miami International Airport it is 76.5° F, and for the Tamiami Trail station it is 73.8° F. Such differences over a relatively short distance can be found along all of Florida’s coastlines.
If the temperature of the water off of Florida’s coasts is changing, that change should be reflected in the temperature at stations near it? However, research by Maul and Sims (2007) suggest that there is “no geographic organization to temperature change as an indicator of Florida’s coastal marine climate variability.” On the other hand, research from the present study reveals that the ten weather stations in Florida which have experienced trends of the earliest dates of arrival of the hot season during the period 1950 to 2007 were coastal. If the water offshore did not change in temperature during the 58-year period, what caused the change? Since most of the ten stations were in large and rapidly growing cities the likely explanation is the “heat island effect,” which will be described later.
Smaller scale wind systems called land and sea breezes facilitate the exchange of air between the sea and the land. During the daytime, particularly in the hot season, temperatures rise over the land and the warmed air at its surface rises, creating a low pressure area that draws cooler air from the sea. This is called a sea breeze, and modifies the temperature on the land near the coast. The reverse occurs at night, when the water surface temperature is higher than that of the land and air begins to rise over the water, pulling air from the land. This wind is named the land breeze, and also is most common in the summer.
Low pressure systems that cross the continent from west to east, usually following the jet stream, exert a strong and frequent influence on winter temperatures in North Florida, but decrease in both strength and frequency southward down the peninsula. If these low pressure systems pass close to or even through Florida, they can draw cold air masses from the interior of the nation, or even Canada, into Florida. Sometimes temperatures may fall well below freezing as far south as Miami. These blasts of cold air are the worst enemies of the state’s vegetable and citrus farmers.
Since these low pressure systems pass over or near the state most frequently during the winter they also play a major role in defining the beginning and end of the hot season. There is great variation from year to year in the arrival of cold fronts. At a given station they may continue arriving well beyond the mean date of the season’s arrival and much earlier than the mean date of the end of the season. For most Floridians the end of the hot season is the most eagerly anticipated date. After a long and exhausting hot season many Floridians long for the first few days when a cold front reaches them, lowering the temperature as well as the humidity to a more comfortable level. However, it is not uncommon for a cold wave of considerable severity to arrive early, only to be followed by many hot days.
Most who study weather accept that greenhouse gases contribute to global warming, although it is still a contentious issue as to their degree. Urbanization is usually cited as one of the leading contributors to the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, and the term “urban heat island” has come into common use describing the contribution that the environment of large and dense concentrations of people effect the climates in which they live. Those who cross an asphalt paved parking lot during a hot summer day, can appreciate how the surface of a large city can be a tremendous conductor of heat.
Florida’s enormous population growth since the end of World War II has swelled the size of its cities. In fact, urban growth has been so rapid along its so-called “Gold Coast”, which extends from Miami-Dade County north to Palm Beach County, that towns within it have merged into one huge “megalopolis” has emerged. Actually coastal towns along almost the entire east coast of the state have merged with each other to form an almost continuous urban strip from south of Miami to Jacksonville. Two others are emerging, one between Tampa-St. Petersburg and Daytona Beach, the other from Tampa-St. Petersburg to Naples (Figure 1).
click to enlarge
The phenomenon of the Urban Heat Island of Orlando has been examined in detail (Yow and Carbone, 2006). The authors’ findings can be extrapolated to other Florida urban areas. They found that during the 36-month study-period, differences between the temperature of a station in the heart of the city and one on its urban fringe often differed by as much as 14° F.
Less well-known than the Urban Heat Island’s contribution to global warming is the contribution made by the disturbance of the natural landscape. Though much of Florida’s natural landscape has been altered, the natural environment of one huge area, The Everglades, has come under close scrutiny. Throughout the twentieth century large portions of it have been drained and put into agriculture, particularly vegetables and sugarcane. Scientists have examined the climate of the Everglades over time and have concluded that, among other variables, there has been an increase in daytime maximum temperature (Marshall, Pielke, and Steyaert, 2004). To the north of Lake Okeechobee is the Kissimmee River, whose basin also has been radically altered from its natural state through drainage and vegetation clearance, to make room for farming and cattle ranching. It, like the Everglades, has also experienced climate change.
Data and Methodology
This study proposes to calculate through the use of degree-days, changes in the length and the strength of Florida’s hot season between 1950 and 2007. Unfortunately, only eight weather stations within the state were able to provide complete or nearly complete daily minimum and maximum temperature for that period. The number of stations was expanded to 57 by adding 49 through the efforts of Rebecca Anne Smith (Smith, 2004) whose study on maximum and minimum temperature trends in the United States required complete daily temperature between 1948 and 2004 for 758 stations. Most of these stations had missing data, but with the help of members of the Florida State University’s Department of Meteorology, Center for Atmospheric Prediction and the Florida Climate Center, Smith was able to fill in the missing temperature data for the stations to the satisfaction of her master’s degree thesis committee. Since the period for this study is from 1950 to 2007, and that of the Smith study was between 1948 and 2004, her data was extended through 2007 by drawing on Weather Service data, or in their absence, from those of nearby stations. Figure 2 shows the location of all stations used in the study.
click to enlarge
The daily minimum and maximum temperature for the 58-year period (21,170 days) was converted to degree-days, and submitted to a 14-day moving average. The beginning of the hot season is here defined as when, during the year, there were at least seven consecutive days when the cooling degree-days in the moving average reached or exceeded 10. The end of the period was the first of seven consecutive days when the cooling degree-days of the moving average fell below 10. In defense of the 10 cooling degree-day definition, for example, the minimum temperature that day might be 65° F and the maximum temperature 85° F, and the average 75° F. For most people such a temperature range would be interpreted as hot. In Florida during July and August it is common for the daily temperature range to be between 73° F and 95° F. A range of this size would produce a 19 heating degree-day. Though highly subjective, it was believed that the definition meets the demands of those interested in the length of the state’s hot season.
A word about the maps used. Gradient maps were generated through Mapview software. Gradient maps display, through color, information taken from points. The point data are interpolated onto a grid. The accuracy of the map grid improves with the density of the weather stations. Unfortunately large areas of Florida, most notably the Everglades and the Kissimmee River valley, are devoid, or nearly so, of weather stations that can provide 58 years of data. The computer program assigns colors to the grid from the data points based on a selection of color spectrums provided with the software. For the maps of this study the most important factor governing the selection of the color spectrum was the one that best displayed the data. Undoubtedly, the accuracy of the software’s interpretation of the data varies. In those parts of the map where stations are densest the map is most accurate.
Once the data were collected for all the days between 1950 and 2007 and all leap days eliminated, the beginning and end of the hot season were manually established for each year of the 58-year period. From this data the mean date of the beginning and end were calculated as was the mean length of the season. The degree and direction of change for these data during the 58-year period were obtained through use of simple linear regression, where the slope was assumed to be the rate of change. The trends were tested for significance, and all stations with confidence levels of .10 or better were identified on the maps and in Table 3. The fact that over sixty percent of the stations produced confidence levels of at least .10 for their beginning and end date trends, 39 percent for the length of the season supports the relevance of this investigation.
Table 3: Length and Intensity of Florida’s Hot Season
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